Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Florida Realtors see mini-recovery in the Sunshine State
Heading into 2012, Florida Realtors say the Sunshine State is already in a mini-recovery with sales trending up and inventories starting to fall.
The association of state real estate agents concluded during its 2012 Real Estate Economic Forecast Conference Tuesday in Orlando that Midwesterners wanting homes in Florida will be able to find deals throughout next year.
Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. John Tuccillo said real estate agents are starting to see multiple offers on Florida homes.
Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wells Fargo, who spoke at the event, said the European debt crisis remains a concern, but he anticipates the U.S. economic recovery will continue in 2012.
"Florida’s economy is recovering, with tourism and health care leading the way," Vitner said. "On a national level, we expect the U.S. will not fall into recession next year, although Europe faces serious problems."
Lawrence Yun with the National Association of Realtors, who also spoke at the event, said local Florida markets are starting to see their inventory levels drop. "That's a major change from just a year ago," Yun said. "Buyers have stepped back into the Florida market."
Yun is predicting a poignant turnaround in South Florida and expects to see home price gains in Miami and Naples in the coming 18 months.
From: http://www.housingwire.com/tag/2012-real-estate-economic-forecast
Mortgage delinquencies to drop in 2012?
Lets hope that this is the case!
Barring another blow to the U.S. economy, the number of people who are behind on their mortgage or credit card payments is expected to drop over the next year, according to annual forecasts released by credit-reporting agency TransUnion.
Mortgage loan delinquencies will see the sharpest overall decline in 2012, TransUnion projects, with the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (the ratio of borrowers who are 60 days or more behind on payments) dropping to as low as 5% by the end of the year.
A slight increase -- to about 6% -- is expected through the first quarter of the year, however. The delinquency rate peaked at 6.9% at the end of 2009.
Because mortgage delinquency is generally considered to be a precursor to foreclosure, the TransUnion forecasts mean 2012 should see a decline in foreclosure rates as well.
"Although house prices and unemployment will likely face continued pressure next year, this forecast calls for gradual improvements in the second half of 2012 to other key variables, like improving credit quality of new originations, consumer confidence and GDP, that will positively influence homeowners' ability and willingness to pay their mortgages," said Tim Martin, a group vice president in TransUnion's financial services business unit. "If things go as expected … mortgage delinquencies could fall as much as 16% in 2012 compared to 2011."
The drop, though significant, will keep rates well above their pre-recession norm of 1.5% to 2%, according to The Associated Press.
Homes prices still declining
On Tuesday, CoreLogic released its October Home Price Index, which showed prices had fallen 1.3% since September, and 3.9% since October 2010. The downward trend is fueled by a glut of unsold homes on the market due to foreclosures and overbuilding, according to Total Mortgage Services.
The number of vacant American homes grew by more than 50% in the first decade of this century, to 10.3 million, according to a report released Tuesday by the Government Accountability Office, The Huffington Post reported. And most real-estate and financial analysts predict that number will increase,
Estimates on the number of homes at risk of foreclosure vary widely, but last month analysts estimated that as few as 1.6 million and as many as 10.3 million mortgages might be in trouble, according to The Wall Street Journal's Developments blog. The variation was largely caused by whether researchers counted loans that were 90, 60 or only 30 days delinquent.
With millions of people still underwater on their mortgages, the advocacy group Center for Responsible Lending says the foreclosure crisis is less than halfway over, CBS News reports.
In her 2012 outlook, Bank of America analyst Michelle Meyer also stated that the crisis is far from over, predicting that home prices will decline another 7% and that 2013 will be the worst year for foreclosures, Business Insider reported. "All told, we expect 14 million foreclosures or a quarter of all homeowners with a mortgage," Meyers predicts.
Credit card delinquencies down
Credit card delinquency rates, which reflect the number of cardholders behind on payments by 90 days or more, reached 0.6% -- their lowest level in 17 years -- in the second quarter of 2011. As with mortgage delinquency rates, TransUnion forecasts a small uptick in early 2012, but then another drop to end the year at about 0.7%.
The historically low credit card delinquency rates reflect, in part, tighter lending policies, which prevent those with less-than-stellar credit from obtaining new cards.
"Lenders are willing to lend, but are still pursuing the best customers," said Steven Chaouki, a TransUnion group vice president, according to MarketWatch.
What's fueling the mortgage delinquency drop?
Banks are still working through a backlog of foreclosures, but will likely get those off their books by the end of 2011, Chaouki told Dow Jones Newswires. The backlog caused a temporary increase in the mortgage delinquency rate. The slow improvement of the job market and continued stabilization of the housing market are also expected to contribute to the drop, Chaouki said.
A factor that has impacted both the mortgage and credit card delinquency rates was a shift in consumer priorities. Historically, financially strapped borrowers have paid the mortgage first to protect their primary investment, and because of the "emotional attachment involved in owning a home," Chaouki said. Because the recession left so many borrowers underwater on their mortgages, making credit card payments first has been a more practical choice.
"In today's uncertain economy, consumers have found that credit cards are among their most valued assets due to the flexibility they provide," Chaouki said. "As a result, consumers have made a concerted effort to make on-time payments and maintain relatively low balances."
From:
money.msn.com/saving-money-tips/post.aspx?post=7612bf3c-0046-4aea-a998-f2e36d44faeb
Barring another blow to the U.S. economy, the number of people who are behind on their mortgage or credit card payments is expected to drop over the next year, according to annual forecasts released by credit-reporting agency TransUnion.
Mortgage loan delinquencies will see the sharpest overall decline in 2012, TransUnion projects, with the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (the ratio of borrowers who are 60 days or more behind on payments) dropping to as low as 5% by the end of the year.
A slight increase -- to about 6% -- is expected through the first quarter of the year, however. The delinquency rate peaked at 6.9% at the end of 2009.
Because mortgage delinquency is generally considered to be a precursor to foreclosure, the TransUnion forecasts mean 2012 should see a decline in foreclosure rates as well.
"Although house prices and unemployment will likely face continued pressure next year, this forecast calls for gradual improvements in the second half of 2012 to other key variables, like improving credit quality of new originations, consumer confidence and GDP, that will positively influence homeowners' ability and willingness to pay their mortgages," said Tim Martin, a group vice president in TransUnion's financial services business unit. "If things go as expected … mortgage delinquencies could fall as much as 16% in 2012 compared to 2011."
The drop, though significant, will keep rates well above their pre-recession norm of 1.5% to 2%, according to The Associated Press.
Homes prices still declining
On Tuesday, CoreLogic released its October Home Price Index, which showed prices had fallen 1.3% since September, and 3.9% since October 2010. The downward trend is fueled by a glut of unsold homes on the market due to foreclosures and overbuilding, according to Total Mortgage Services.
The number of vacant American homes grew by more than 50% in the first decade of this century, to 10.3 million, according to a report released Tuesday by the Government Accountability Office, The Huffington Post reported. And most real-estate and financial analysts predict that number will increase,
Estimates on the number of homes at risk of foreclosure vary widely, but last month analysts estimated that as few as 1.6 million and as many as 10.3 million mortgages might be in trouble, according to The Wall Street Journal's Developments blog. The variation was largely caused by whether researchers counted loans that were 90, 60 or only 30 days delinquent.
With millions of people still underwater on their mortgages, the advocacy group Center for Responsible Lending says the foreclosure crisis is less than halfway over, CBS News reports.
In her 2012 outlook, Bank of America analyst Michelle Meyer also stated that the crisis is far from over, predicting that home prices will decline another 7% and that 2013 will be the worst year for foreclosures, Business Insider reported. "All told, we expect 14 million foreclosures or a quarter of all homeowners with a mortgage," Meyers predicts.
Credit card delinquencies down
Credit card delinquency rates, which reflect the number of cardholders behind on payments by 90 days or more, reached 0.6% -- their lowest level in 17 years -- in the second quarter of 2011. As with mortgage delinquency rates, TransUnion forecasts a small uptick in early 2012, but then another drop to end the year at about 0.7%.
The historically low credit card delinquency rates reflect, in part, tighter lending policies, which prevent those with less-than-stellar credit from obtaining new cards.
"Lenders are willing to lend, but are still pursuing the best customers," said Steven Chaouki, a TransUnion group vice president, according to MarketWatch.
What's fueling the mortgage delinquency drop?
Banks are still working through a backlog of foreclosures, but will likely get those off their books by the end of 2011, Chaouki told Dow Jones Newswires. The backlog caused a temporary increase in the mortgage delinquency rate. The slow improvement of the job market and continued stabilization of the housing market are also expected to contribute to the drop, Chaouki said.
A factor that has impacted both the mortgage and credit card delinquency rates was a shift in consumer priorities. Historically, financially strapped borrowers have paid the mortgage first to protect their primary investment, and because of the "emotional attachment involved in owning a home," Chaouki said. Because the recession left so many borrowers underwater on their mortgages, making credit card payments first has been a more practical choice.
"In today's uncertain economy, consumers have found that credit cards are among their most valued assets due to the flexibility they provide," Chaouki said. "As a result, consumers have made a concerted effort to make on-time payments and maintain relatively low balances."
From:
money.msn.com/saving-money-tips/post.aspx?post=7612bf3c-0046-4aea-a998-f2e36d44faeb
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